Welcome to the November 2024 issue of Credit Management News Digest. Our sponsor this month is Bondaval.
Index
UK: Late Payment, Business Distress & Insolvencies
Global: Late Payment, Insolvencies & Global Economy
Credit Management News & Resources
Events & Professional Development
About this month's sponsor: Bondaval​
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UK: Late Payment, Business Distress & Insolvencies
​A record number of UK businesses are now in significant financial distress. The latest Begbies Traynor “Red Flag Alert” research reports that the number of companies in the UK facing 'significant' financial distress has increased by 5.1% in Q3 2024 to 632,756 businesses – 32.3% higher than Q3 2023 (478,176). According to Begbies Traynor, the increase was driven by noticeable increases in distress in the Utilities (+19.3%), Food & Drug Retailers (+10.4%), Financial Services (+9.94%) and Bars & Restaurants (+8.7%) sectors. Overall, twenty-one of the twenty-two sectors monitored by Red Flag Alert reported that the level of 'significant' financial distress had increased in Q3 2024 compared to the prior quarter. To read Begbies Traynor's news release, go to https://www.begbies-traynorgroup.com/news/business-health-statistics/red-flag-alert-report-q3-uncertain-outlook-for-the-uk-economy-pushes-a-record-number-of-businesses-into-significant-financial-distress.
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Profit warnings issued by UK-listed companies reach a two-year high. Analysis by EY-Parthenon shows that UK-listed companies issued eighty-four profit warnings in Q3 2024, an 11% increase compared to the same quarter in 2023 and the highest quarterly total for two years. According to EY-Parthenon, unusually, the latest rise in warnings wasn't triggered by a sudden economic downturn, a one-off event, or a sudden increase in costs or supply chain disruption. Instead, it reflects a pause in corporate spending, with a record 38% of profit warnings attributed to order or contract delays and cancellations. The proportion of those that have issued a warning over the last year now stands at 19.2% – the highest percentage since the pandemic and, before that, since 2001. To read EY's report, go to https://www.ey.com/en_uk/services/strategy-transactions/profit-warnings.
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ICAEW is disappointed by the new reporting to tackle late payments. ICAEW has warned that new legislation forcing large companies to report on supplier payment performance in their annual reports is fraught with practical challenges, risks reducing the usefulness of the annual report and, ultimately, is unlikely to contribute much to improving payment practices by large companies. Sally Baker, ICAEW Head of Corporate Reporting Strategy, commented that information on supplier payment practices is currently available on a web-based service and requiring disclosure in the annual report is therefore duplicative. Instead, ICAEW believes that bolstering the director sign-off process for the web-based service and exploring ways to strengthen enforcement of compliance with the current regulations would be a more practical and effective solution. To read ICAEW's news release, go to https://www.icaew.com/insights/viewpoints-on-the-news/2024/oct-2024/icaew-disappointed-by-new-reporting-to-tackle-late-payments.
Business bad debt has increased by 127%. According to a new report by Bibby Financial Services (BFS), the value of bad debt suffered by small businesses has surged by "a staggering" 127%. BFS's SME Confidence Tracker found that businesses have written-off an average of nearly £40,000 in unpaid invoices in the last 12 months, up from an average of £17,500 in the Spring. The proportion suffering from non-payment has risen too, reaching 40%, up from 30% in March. Jonathan Andrew, Chief Executive Officer of Bibby Financial Services, said: “This is a supply chain disaster waiting to happen for SMEs, as well as a huge economic leakage. While late payment is a known challenge, bad debt, where unpaid invoices are written-off entirely, is a hidden assassin that can wreak havoc through SME supply chains.” To read BFS' Tracker, go to https://www.bibbyfinancialservices.com/knowledge-hub/news/2024/confidence-returns-little-by-little.
​Business insolvencies in England and Wales in September 2024 were nearly 7.4% lower than the same month in 2023. The latest data from the Insolvency Service shows that corporate insolvencies in England and Wales increased by 1.5% (to 1,973) in September 2024 compared to August 2024, but decreased by 7.4% compared to September 2023's figure of 2,130. Compared to two years earlier (September 2022), corporate insolvencies had increased by 14.3%. Tim Cooper, President of R3 and a partner at Addleshaw Goddard LLP, commented: "In terms of the figures, the marginal monthly increase in corporate insolvencies is due to an increase in Creditors' Voluntary Liquidations and Administrations, while the year-on-year reduction in numbers is due to a fall in Creditors' Voluntary Liquidations and Compulsory Liquidation." To read R3's news release, go to https://www.r3.org.uk/press-policy-and-research/news/more/32201/page/1//.
UK company insolvencies in October 2024 were 34% higher than in September. New data from Creditsafe has found that 2,941 companies in the UK became insolvent in October 2024 – a 34% increase compared to September and 17% higher than the same month in 2023. 16% of insolvencies in October came from within the UK construction sector. High-profile cases included Hadden Construction and C.G. Godfrey Ltd, which entered administration due to escalating operational costs and project delays. Additionally, the Wholesale and Retail and Accommodation and Food Services sectors continue to see high insolvency rates. In October 2024, 382 companies in Wholesale and Retail and 345 in Accommodation and Food Services entered insolvency, together representing 25% of all insolvencies for the month. Notable high-profile cases include Kettle Home Ltd, which entered liquidation amid mounting pressures from rising shipping costs and economic challenges. To read Creditsafe's news release, go to https://www.creditsafe.com/gb/en/blog/reports/insolvencies.html.
Scotland's economic upturn has come too late for a number of businesses. The latest data from the Insolvency Service shows that corporate insolvencies in Scotland for July to September 2024 increased by 10.6% (to 303) compared with the previous quarter. Commenting on the statistics, Iain Fraser, Chair of the Scottish Technical Committee at R3, the UK's insolvency and restructuring trade body, and a Partner at FRP Advisory, said: "Whilst Scotland's economy has shown resilience, it would seem Scotland's economic upturn has come too late for a number of businesses as the increase in Creditors' Voluntary Liquidations has driven corporate insolvency levels in Scotland to their highest levels since Q4 22-23. After years of battling high costs and cautious consumer spending, an increasing number of directors are turning to an insolvency process to help resolve their financial issues." To read R3's news release, go to https://www.r3.org.uk/press-policy-and-research/news/more/32245/page/1//.
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​​​​​UK Economy
GDP growth expectations for 2024 and 2025 have been revised downwards since EY's Summer Forecast. The EY ITEM Club has revised its GDP growth expectations for 2024 down slightly from 1.1% in July’s Summer Forecast to 0.9%. Although UK GDP growth is then expected to accelerate to 1.5% in 2025, this projection is 0.5% lower than the 2% growth forecast EY Item Club predicted in the Summer. Matt Swannell, Chief Economic Advisor to the EY ITEM Club, commented: "Following last year's technical recession, a strong start to 2024 helped establish the UK's recovery and a return to steady growth is forecast for next year. However, lower household savings have reduced the scope of potential consumer spending and sticky inflation means that interest rate cuts are set to occur at a gradual pace. This means that growth in 2025 won't be as robust as it could have been." To read EY's news release, go to https://www.ey.com/en_uk/newsroom/2024/10/uk-economy-growth-forecast-downgraded-by-consumer-spending.
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GDP growth looks set to remain around its trend rate of 1% over 2024 as a whole. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research's (NIESR) latest UK Economic Outlook advises that, despite a strong start in the first half of the year, NIESR expects GDP growth to remain around its trend rate of 1% over 2024 as a whole, before improving slightly to 1.2% in 2025. Growth rates of 0.7% and 0.5% in the first and second quarters, falling to 0.2% and 0.4% in the third and fourth quarters, are anticipated. However, throughout the forecast period, NIESR cautions that it sees the risks to GDP growth being on the downside, and suggests that there is a roughly 20% chance of an annual fall in GDP in 2025 and a roughly 30% chance of an annual fall in GDP in 2024. To read a summary of NIESR's findings, with a link to the full report, go to https://www.niesr.ac.uk/publications/subdued-growth-challenging-fiscal-landscape?type=uk-economic-outlook.
UK GDP increased by 0.8% in the three months to August 2024 compared with the same period in 2023. The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) data suggests that monthly GDP grew by 0.2% in August 2024 after showing no growth in July 2024. GDP is also estimated to have grown by 0.2% in the three months to August 2024 compared with the three months to May 2024. Services output was the main contributor to the growth in the three months to August, rising by 0.1%. There was also a 1.0% increase in construction output, while production output showed no growth over this period. Looking over the longer term, GDP is estimated to have increased by 0.8% in the three months to August 2024 compared with the three months to August 2023, and by 1.0% in August 2024 compared with the same month last year. To read the ONS' news release, go to https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpmonthlyestimateuk/august2024.
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SME exporters are consistently more likely to report decreased exports compared to before the pandemic and Brexit.  The latest Trade Confidence Outlook, conducted by the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) Insights Unit, shows the percentage of SME exporters reporting increased exports has fallen back in Q3 by 5% after an uptick in Q2. Overall, 22% of SME exporters in the UK reported an increase in export sales, 24% reported a decrease, and 54% reported no change. The position for advance orders is even less optimistic, with 19% of SMEs reporting an increase, 56% no change, and 25% a decrease. The BCC notes that SME exporters are consistently more likely to report decreased exports compared to before the pandemic and Brexit. For example, in Q2 2018, only 14% of SME exporters reported a decrease in overseas sales. To read the BCC's news release, go to https://www.britishchambers.org.uk/news/2024/10/sme-exporters-fighting-to-make-headway/. 
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The UK private sector expects no growth in the final months of 2024. According to the CBI's latest Growth Indicator, private sector firms expect no change in activity over the next three months (weighted balance of -1%). This marks the second consecutive rolling-quarter where survey respondents did not expect any growth over the near-term. The "tepid" picture was echoed across all major sub-sectors. Business volumes in the services sector are anticipated to be broadly unchanged (+2%), as mild growth in business & professional services (+6%) is expected to partly offset a modest decline in consumer services (-10%). Distribution sales are expected to fall (-10%) and manufacturers anticipate output to be broadly unchanged in the three months to January (-1%). Alpesh Paleja, CBI Interim Deputy Chief Economist, said: "Our latest surveys paint a picture of an economy shifting down a gear as we head into the final quarter of 2024." To read the CBI's news release, go to https://www.cbi.org.uk/media-centre/articles/private-sector-expects-no-growth-in-final-months-of-2024-cbi-growth-indicator/.
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October sales growth stagnates, signalling a challenging festive period. According to BDO's latest High Street Sales Tracker, total retail sales across discretionary spend categories grew by +4.1% in October, compared to an overall sales decline of 1.7% for the same month last year. Last month's growth was driven primarily by online sales, which increased by +9.1% compared to October 2023, while, in comparison, in-store sales grew by just +1.7%, compared to a weak base of -1.0% the previous year, despite being one month into the so-called 'Golden Quarter'. Sophie Michael, Head of Retail and Wholesale at BDO, commented: "While this is an overall positive result, this growth is based on the disastrous sales figures recorded in October 2023." To read BDO's news release, go to https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/news/2024/october-sales-growth-stagnates-signalling-a-challenging-festive-period.
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Small business growth forecasts reach a two-year peak. According to new research from Novuna Business Finance, the percentage of UK small businesses predicting growth for the final three months of 2024 remains at the two-year high of last quarter (35%) – with significant upturns in growth forecasts across the North, the Midlands and among younger businesses. Novuna suggests that the new Q4 figures suggest this Summer's bounce-back was not a flash in the pan but could be the start of a new, sustainable period of growth outlook for UK small businesses. However, it cautions that the quarter-on-quarter upturns in small business growth forecasts are happening in the North and the Midlands rather than the South East or South West. To read Novuna's news release, go to https://www.novuna.co.uk/news-and-insights/business-finance/small-business-growth-forecasts-at-two-year-peak-ahead-of-autumn-budget-as-confidence-accelerates-in-north-and-midlands-but-stagnates-in-the-south/.
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Global: Late Payment, Insolvencies & Global Economy
​Resilience sums up the global economy this year. D&B's latest global Outlook reports that the global economy appears to have successfully navigated the recent environment of high interest rates. Furthermore, where there have been recessions, they have not been deep or protracted, and though many businesses are continuing to face bankruptcy, the global economy is showing signs of stabilisation. Although growth in the US economy has continued to gradually decelerate and looks set to slow further as unemployment ticks up – D&B does not expect the economy to tip into recession. The Eurozone economy continued its recovery in Q2, with mixed performances across the region. German GDP shrank compared with Q1 (with concern that Germany may slide back into recession), but the GDPs of Spain, France, and Italy all expanded. To read D&B's Outlook, go to https://www.dnb.com/perspectives/finance-credit-risk/country-risk-global-outlook.html.​​​​​​​​​​​​​
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Global growth is expected to remain stable yet underwhelming. The IMF's latest World Economic predicts that global growth will remain stable yet underwhelming. With 3.2% growth predicted in 2024 and 2025, this growth projection is virtually unchanged from those suggested by the IMF in both the July 2024 World Economic Outlook Update and the April 2024 World Economic Outlook. However, notable revisions have taken place beneath the surface, with upgrades to the forecast for the US offsetting downgrades to those for other advanced economies – in particular, the largest European countries. Furthermore, the IMF's latest forecast for global growth five years from now at 3.1% remains mediocre compared with the pre-pandemic average. To read the IMF's Executive Summary and the full report or to watch the IMF's press conference, go to https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2024/10/22/world-economic-outlook-october-2024.
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Global growth should stabilise in 2025. Coface's latest Barometer suggests the global economic recovery presents a mixed picture. While the US economy looks set for a soft landing, the eurozone continues to face many uncertainties, particularly in the industrial sector. China, meanwhile, is struggling to sustain its growth. However, weaker contributions from the world's three main economic centres should be offset by the acceleration in many emerging economies on the back of less restrictive financing conditions. Excluding China, emerging economies will account for 40% of global growth in 2025, i.e., the highest level since 2012 when the Euro area suffered a sharp recession (-0.9%) at the height of the sovereign debt crisis. In this context, Coface has adjusted its ratings for five countries and seventeen sectors, reflecting a scenario of stabilised global growth in 2025, albeit below potential. To read Coface's news release, go to https://www.coface.uk/news-economy-and-insights/from-monetary-pivot-to-fiscal-turnaround-coface-barometer.
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Asia expects insolvencies to rise as China's economy slows. Atradius' latest Payment Practices Barometer has reported that a rising level of insolvency risk has emerged as a major concern looking ahead for half of companies across Asia, with widespread worries it could negatively impact B2B trade on credit. India, Indonesia, Japan and Singapore are the markets most preoccupied about future insolvency risk, but worry right across Asia reflects the view outlined by Atradius economists in the latest Insolvency Outlook report, which forecasts an increase in insolvencies across Asia in 2024. Anxiety is also compounded by an already challenging credit risk environment, with late payments affecting an average of 46% of B2B credit sales and bad debts at 4% of B2B sales invoices issued by Asian companies. To read Atradius' news release, go to https://group.atradius.com/press/press-releases/asia-expects-insolvency-rise-as-china-economy-slows.html.
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Allianz Trade anticipates a sharp rise in global business insolvencies for 2024. When Allianz Trade released its first global insolvency forecasts in February, the company was already expecting a strong increase in 2024 (+9%) followed by a stabilisation in 2025. However, recent developments have led to an even grimmer picture, with a +11% rise now forecast for this year, followed by a peak in 2025. Business insolvencies will not stabilise until 2026 and, even then, they will remain at high levels. In the US, Allianz Trade expects insolvencies to rise by +12% in 2025 before falling by -4% in 2026. In Germany, they will increase by +4% before dropping by -4% in 2026. In France and the UK, they will slightly moderate from very high levels (-6% in 2025 for both vs -3% and -4% in 2026, respectively), while in Italy, they will continue to rise (+4% and +3% respectively). Overall, more than half of the global GDP will be hit by double-digit increases. To read Allianz Trade's news release, go to https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_global/news-insights/news/insolvency-report-2024.html.
Construction bankruptcies look set to peak in 2025. A new report from Allianz Trade suggests that construction bankruptcies are showing sharp increases across the eurozone this year, but the peak has yet to be reached and will follow next year. The latest figures show an increase in insolvencies (compared to a year ago) of +20% in Germany, +21% in Belgium, +31% in France, +35% in Italy and Sweden. In the first half of the year, thirty companies with sales greater than €50 million went bankrupt, particularly in Europe and Asia. According to Johan Geeroms, Allianz Trade's Director of Risk Underwriting Benelux, construction is in the top three sectors most affected by major insolvencies, and large construction groups are most vulnerable. To read Allianz Trade's news release, with a link to the report, go to https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_BE/news/latest-news/construction-bankruptcies-peak-in-2025.html.
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More businesses opened than dissolved in the EU in 2022. New research by Eurostat indicates that, in 2022, there was a total of over 32 million enterprises in the EU. 3.4 million new enterprises were born that year, and according to the preliminary data, 2.8 million enterprise deaths were registered. The enterprise birth rate was 10.5%, while the preliminary rate of enterprise deaths stood at 8.7%, and, in most EU countries (exceptions were Bulgaria, Estonia, Ireland, Denmark, Poland and Germany), more companies were created than dissolved. The highest enterprise birth rates were recorded in Lithuania (18.3%), Portugal (16.7%) and Estonia (16.6%). The lowest rates were registered in Austria (6.2%), Denmark (7.4%) and Italy (7.9%). The highest death rates of enterprises were registered in Estonia (25.1%), Bulgaria (20.6%) and Ireland (15.6%), while the lowest rates were registered in Greece (3.1%), Belgium (5.2%) and Cyprus (5.8%). To read Eurostat's news release, go to https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/en/web/products-eurostat-news/w/ddn-20241025-2.​​​
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Credit Management News & Resources
New Fair Payment Code. With the support of the Department of Business and Trade, the UK's Small Business Commissioner has announced that it will launch a new Fair Payment Code later in Autumn 2024. The new Code will reward businesses that adopt fair payment practices for suppliers of all sizes and will include a set of fair payment principles that companies are required to sign up to. Additionally, there are three award categories: Gold – For companies paying 95% of their suppliers within 30 days; Silver – For companies paying 95% of their small business suppliers within 30 days and all other suppliers within 60 days; Bronze – For companies paying 95% of suppliers within 60 days. The new Code will replace the Prompt Payment Code, which has been operational since 2008. For more information, go to https://www.smallbusinesscommissioner.gov.uk/new-fair-payment-code/.​
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Debt Collection Handbook UK 2024. Atradius Collections has published its International Debt Collection Handbook. The UK handbook explains the different regulations and procedures for debt collections in the UK, presents a snapshot of the UK's economic situation, and covers the following topics: Debt collection costs, Prescription, Payment methods, Types of companies, Retention of title, Safeguard measures, Legal procedures & legal system, Enforcement in debt, movable and immovable property, Insolvency proceedings. To download a copy, go to https://atradiuscollections.com/uk/publications/international-debt-collections-handbook.html.
Country-specific copies are also available for twenty-three other countries, including the US, Germany and France.
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Events & Professional Development
GTR Nordics, 27 November 2924. Stockholm.
Set to welcome over 600 participants and still undisputed as the region’s premier annual trade financing event, GTR Nordics, returns to Stockholm on November 27 to deliver the latest insights on the evolving opportunities and challenges impacting Nordic trade, export and supply chain financing. The conference will feature a packed day of debate between the market’s leading trade practitioners and extensive opportunities to access unmatched networking potential.
Offering invaluable insights and sharing unique industry expertise, over 50 expert speakers will gather to discuss headline trends and practical financing techniques, from green investment challenges to the effect of higher rates on supply chain financing, the role of trade and export finance in Ukraine’s reconstruction, trade ecosystem digitalisation and much more!
We look forward to welcoming you to GTR Nordics 2024 in Stockholm later this year!
Key discussion themes include:
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Transitional investment and sustainability strategy
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The evolving value of supply chain finance
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Financing transition-critical Nordic industries
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Supporting Ukraine reconstruction
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Working capital optimisation and innovation
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Trade fintech and ecosystem digitalisation
Event features:
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25+ exhibitors
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3+ hours of networking opportunities with key stakeholders in the industry
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Unparalleled expertise from 55+ speakers who are active in the market
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Exceptional content on topics and regions covered
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Opportunity to schedule meetings and swap business cards
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Evening drinks reception
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Discounts & Ppromotions
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Young Professionals Pass – Limited free tickets available
To qualify, you must be under 25 years old, with less than three years of experience in the trade finance industry. Limited to 2 events per year. -
20 passes are available for this event, limited to 2 passes per institution, and cannot be combined with other promotions. Confirm your eligibility by contacting ypp@gtreview.com with your work email address, LinkedIn profile, and age.
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For more information about this event, go to https://www.gtreview.com/events/europe/gtr-nordics-2024-stockholm/.
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GTR MENA, 18-19 February, 2025. Dubai.
Having celebrated the largest ever edition of GTR MENA in 2024, welcoming a record-breaking 1,136 attendees, GTR is excited to return to Dubai on February 18-19, 2025, bigger, better and ready to host the region’s leading content and networking platform for the global trade, export, commodity and supply chain finance community.
The annual two-day conference will provide high value networking opportunities, enabling delegates to catch up with industry friends, forge new business connections and meet with highly esteemed exhibitors from leading trade service providers across the Middle East and North Africa. Over 90 industry experts will explore the latest trends and developments, highlighting both challenges and opportunities whilst offering future projections of the market. The GTR team looks forward to welcoming you there!
2025 key discussion themes:
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The changing nature of global shipping
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Seizing the African opportunity
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Delivering trade growth: Do banks need to less cautious?
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Diversification, state support and ‘flight to quality’: The commodity financing melting pot
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Milestones reached but challenges ahead: How can digital reach the parts others can’t?
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Is supply chain finance on a downward curve?
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2025 event features:
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45+ exhibitors
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5+ hours of networking opportunities with key stakeholders in the industry
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Unparalleled expertise from 90+ speakers
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Exceptional content on topics and regions covered
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Enhanced networking with opportunities to schedule meetings and swap business cards
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Invitation to the evening networking reception
Discounts and promotions
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!0% Early booking discount – January 17, 2025
Early booking discount available for new registrations only and not in conjunction with additional discounts. 10% is automatically processed during online checkout or with a GTR team member. -
Young Professionals Pass – Limited free tickets available
To qualify, you must be under 25 years old, with less than three years of experience in the trade finance industry. Limited to 2 events per year.
10 passes are available for this event for those who work within the industry, limited to 2 passes per institution, and cannot be combined with other promotions. Two passes are available for this event to those studying a relevant educational/University course. Confirm your eligibility by contacting ypp@gtreview.com with your work email address, LinkedIn profile, and age.
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For more information about this event, go to https://www.gtreview.com/events/mena/gtr-mena-2025-dubai.
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GTR Africa, 13-14 March 2025. Cape Town.
GTR Africa has solidified its position as the premier event for the African trade and trade finance community. Returning to Cape Town on March 13-14, 2025, this flagship event will deliver essential insights spanning trade, supply chain, infrastructure, working capital, export and commodity financing markets. Supported by prominent players representing the entire trade finance ecosystem, the conference will feature over 60 speakers sharing unparalleled expertise over two impactful days. Anticipating the participation of more than 550 delegates from over 250 companies, GTR Africa 2025 offers a prime opportunity to engage with key figures in African trade. Don’t miss your chance to reconnect with familiar faces and establish vital new connections in the market during this unrivalled conference.
Event features:
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30+ exhibitors
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8+ hours of networking opportunities with key stakeholders in the industry
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Unparalleled expertise from 60+ speakers
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Exceptional content on topics and regions covered
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Enhanced networking with event app, meetings zones and digital business cards
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Invitation to the evening networking reception
Don’t miss your chance to join the unrivalled opportunity to catch up with old friends and build those crucial new market connections at what is set to be an excellent conference.
We look forward to seeing you there!
Discounts and promotions
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10% Early Booking discount – Available until February 7, 2025
Early booking discount available for new registrations only and not in conjunction with additional discounts. 10% is automatically processed during online checkout or with a GTR team member. -
Young Professionals Pass – Limited free tickets available
To qualify, you must be under 25 years old, with less than three years of experience in the trade finance industry. Limited to 2 events per year.
10 passes are available for this event for those who work within the industry, limited to 2 passes per institution, and cannot be combined with other promotions. Two passes are available for this event to those studying a relevant educational/University course. Confirm your eligibility by contacting ypp@gtreview.com with your work email address, LinkedIn profile, and age.
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For more information about this event, go to https://www.gtreview.com/events/africa/gtr-africa-2025-cape-town.
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About this month's sponsor: Bondaval
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